No, Striped Bass Are Not “Back” in North Carolina

This week, an Axios Raleigh article made the rounds claiming there may have been a strong wild spawn of striped bass in North Carolina’s Roanoke River — a “dramatic turnaround” after years of poor recruitment. We understand why people want that to be true (trust us, we do as well). Unfortunately, wanting something to be true doesn’t make it so.

On the latest episode of The Guide Post Podcast, the ASGA team dug into the claims behind the headline and explained why the conclusion being drawn doesn’t match the data — or the reality striped bass are facing coastwide.

What the article gets right:

Yes, the Roanoke River supports North Carolina’s last remaining wild-spawning striped bass population.
Yes, striped bass are struggling coastwide.
Yes, stocking has been used heavily in North Carolina in recent years.

Those points aren’t controversial.

Where the problem starts:

The Axios article highlights a sharp shift in genetic sampling results:

• In 2023, 97% of sampled striped bass carried hatchery genetic markers
• In 2024, that number dropped to 3%, leading to the claim that millions of wild fish must have spawned to dilute the presence of those hatchery genetics.

That’s a huge leap — and it’s not supported by the legitimate data. The ASGA team reached out to researchers from the state and found that 2024 was actually not a strong spawn. It was better than the catastrophic failures of recent years, but still well below historical averages. There was no “biblical” rebound. No sudden recovery. No evidence that the stock is on the mend — and definitely none related to stocking programs.

So why the massive shift in hatchery markers? The simplest answer is also the most likely one: those stocked fish didn’t survive.

Stocking programs are not the silver bullet for failing wild saltwater fisheries. ASGA has been consistent on this point for years. We are not opposed to “put-and-take fisheries” (smaller-scale or enclosed stocking programs that create more angling opportunity without posing threats to wild fisheries). We are opposed to using hatchery fish to “supplement” wild, migratory striped bass populations. The basis of our resolve on this topic is simple: it’s extremely expensive, high risk and flat-out doesn’t work.

Stocking millions of five-inch fish doesn’t rebuild a stock if those fish never make it to adulthood — and decades of data show they don’t. In saltwater systems, stocked fish routinely fail to show up in the spawning population at meaningful levels. Calling that “recovery” isn’t just misleading — it sidetracks from real, meaningful management action and benefits only a select few “in the business of growing fish.”

Stocking programs are often used as political cover to avoid difficult decisions like harvest reductions, gear changes, or habitat work. They create the illusion of action without addressing the root problem: wild Atlantic striped bass are not successfully recruiting enough young fish into the population.

Worse, they divert limited funding away from the research we actually need — research that private organizations and associations like ASGA commit relentless hours and dollars to support, because agencies don’t have the resources to do themselves.

The intention of this blog is to keep the conversation around striped bass honest. If you want a longer, unfiltered breakdown, you can listen to Episode 189 of The Guide Post, where we walk through the data, the assumptions, and the uncomfortable truths that don’t support the “trending headline.”